La Niña 2025: Pakistan’s Winter Warning and the Future of Its Farms
Important Terms
- El Niño: A climate phase marked by warmer Pacific Ocean waters that shift global wind and rain patterns, often bringing wetter conditions to the Americas and drier weather to Asia and Australia.
- La Niña: The opposite phase, with cooler Pacific waters and stronger trade winds, leading to droughts in some regions and heavy rains or floods in others.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)[1], there is a 55–60% likelihood that La Niña will return between September and December 2025, signaling a shift from the ENSO-neutral conditions that dominated early in the year. Despite the Pacific’s cooling trend, global temperatures are expected to remain above average because human-induced warming continues to outweigh natural variability. The WMO warns that 2025 will still rank among the warmest years on record, with “above-average temperatures likely across much of the world[2].” In Pakistan, where the 2024–25 winter saw a 41% rainfall deficit, La Niña’s reemergence poses serious regional threats: northern areas such as Gilgit-Baltistan and upper KP may face colder, snow-heavier winters and increased avalanche risks, while Sindh and Balochistan could experience prolonged dryness and worsening drought. Punjab is likely to contend with dense fog and smog, while intensified western disturbances may trigger flash floods in northern valleys[3].
For Pakistan’s agriculture, the stakes are particularly high. A La Niña-driven decline in winter rainfall could reduce Indus River inflows, threatening rabi crops like wheat, barley, and canola, while drier conditions in rain-fed zones such as Potohar and Thal may depress yields and degrade grain quality. Livestock feed shortages and rising input costs could further squeeze rural incomes. The FAO[4] and NDMA have recommended proactive measures—distributing drought-tolerant seeds, rehabilitating water channels, expanding rainwater harvesting, and securing livestock feed—to mitigate these risks. Yet, even as La Niña cools the Pacific, over 90% of excess global heat remains trapped in oceans, making “cool years” deceptively warm[5]. For Pakistan, resilience will depend on turning forecasts into foresight—integrating climate data with early adaptation, water-efficient practices, and renewable-energy-based irrigation to safeguard farms and livelihoods against a future where climatic uncertainty is the new normal.
References:
- WMO (Aug 2025) (https://wmo.int/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-update-august-2025?access-token=Uau9OebsyDcbpv6FTNsa12qcQXQtGs20Vj4tsm3rDvk)
- Dawn News (Sept 3, 2025) (https://www.dawn.com/news/1939325)
- IRI ENSO (Sept 2025) (https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current)
- FAO (Oct 2024) (https://www.dawn.com/news/1864666)
- NDMA Pakistan (2025) (https://www.ndma.gov.pk/public/storage/publications/May2025/t4zNbmHpz9aReNlHNGaW.pdf)
